Haaland’s Norway to Ronaldo’s swansong: Who are the most likely first-time World Cup winners?

Eight nations have won the World Cup. An expanded field and a grueling schedule means a new champion could emerge from the pack this summer

When Fifa expanded the field for the 2026 World Cup to 48 teams, the sales pitch included giving more nations a chance at glory. In reality, the favorites are nearly always former champions.

To date, only eight nations have won the men’s World Cup. And yet, few of the former champions arrive at this summer’s tournament in their finest form. Spain are a justifiably popular pick as the reigning European champions have plenty of world-class talent. Argentina will hope to defend their title from 2022 after following it up with the Copa América in 2024. France, who top our power rankings, have reached the last two finals, and Kylian Mbappé claims this squad is the best he has been a part of.