Fresh poll says Andy Burnham set to win crunch by-election thanks to right-wing Restore Britain party peeling away Reform's voters

By CHRISTIAN CALGIE, SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT-AT-LARGE Published: 17:52, 11 June 2026 | Updated: 17:54, 11 June 2026 A new leaked poll of the Makerfield by–election has again suggested that the hard–right Restore Britain party is on course to hand Andy Burnham victory. A survey of the Greater Manchester seat, circulated within Labour before being published today, put Mr Burnham on 35% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK's 24%. It found that Restore, the splinter party set up by Rupert Lowe MP after his expulsion from Reform, has now risen to 13% of the vote. If Reform and Restore's vote shares were added together, the right would overtake Labour and quash Mr Burnham's dreams of returning to Parliament. It again highlighted the threat of the right–wing vote splintering, allowing a hard–left government into Downing Street at the next general election. Another poll this week suggested that up to 19% of Reform UK's voters at the last general election are now backing Restore. Reform UK dismissed the new constituency poll, questioning its provenance and accuracy. A spokesman said: 'This 'data' from [the i Newspaper] comes without transparency, has no published tables and is complete hearsay. Reform trails Andy Burnham according to the newly leaked poll of the Makerfield constituency The poll finds that the right–wing Restore Britain party is now winning 13% of the vote 'Their reporting is an attempt to directly influence the election.' It's now the third survey of Makerfield since the by–election starting pistol was fired that points to Reform losing to the popular Manchester Mayor. While Labour will be buoyed by the data, it included a warning for Mr Burnham that even he is struggling to hold together the 2024 Labour coalition that propelled Keir Starmer into Downing Street. The leaked poll revealed that Mr Burnham currently holds just 67% of those who backed Labour at the last general election. It also suggested that around 17% of voters are yet to make up their minds. Speaking at a constituency press conference yesterday, Nigel Farage insisted that while Restore is proving troublesome in the Makerfield by–election, it won't last in the long term. He also argued that voters are yet to wake up to some of the extreme and antisemitic elements of Restore Britain's support base. Mr Farage added: 'I'm not sure the wider audience has yet seen all of that, but they will before very long.' The splitting of the right–wing vote looks set to hand Mr Burnham a win next Thursday Former Reform UK MP James McMurdock has now ruled out defecting to Restore Britain as its second MP  Restore also suffered a blow today after it was revealed Rupert Lowe's efforts to court another MP to his party had failed. It was reported that Mr Lowe had been trying to tempt over South Basildon and East Thurrock MP James McMurdock, who was elected as a Reform MP but had the party whip suspended amid questions about Covid loans during the pandemic. Asked whether he would join Restore, Mr McMurdock told the Daily Mail: 'Ruled out. I'm Reform.' Efforts to unite the right were further dampened as Kemi Badenoch poured cold water on the chances of any pre–election pacts or deals with Reform UK. The Conservative leader sparked speculation she would be willing to join a Reform coalition after she said Britain 'cannot have another left–wing government'. She later rejected any accusations that she would work with Nigel Farage, adding: 'I want people to know what conservatism is. 'So, no deals, non–aggression pacts and so on. These things do end up falling apart anyway. 'I'm just saying no. It's just no, no, no, no, no, no, no.' No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.