French Open draw: Jannik Sinner's path to a career Grand Slam and quarters of opportunity

Jannik Sinner is aiming to complete the set of four majors at this year's French Open. Tiziana Fabi / AFP via Getty Images Share articleThe French Open starts Sunday at Roland Garros, and the draws for the men’s and women’s singles have some blockbuster first-round matches. They also chart the possible paths for one defending champion, a player in search of one of the great achievements in tennis, and for just about anyone in the draw to make their mark at the second Grand Slam of 2026. The Athletic’s Ava Wallace, Matthew Futterman and Charlie Eccleshare analyze an intriguing draw, as well as offering some of their picks for the matches not to miss in Paris. One half of the women’s tournament looks more foreboding than the other. Yes, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka, last year’s finalists, are in the top half, but beyond them, there aren’t a lot of names among the seeded players who would qualify as likely finalists, especially if they have to get through Sabalenka, who is ubiquitous in Grand Slam semifinals these days.  In Sabalenka’s quarter, the most dangerous player may be Iva Jović, the 18-year-old Californian who came within a point of toppling Gauff at the Italian Open. Or maybe it’s Naomi Osaka, who pushed Sabalenka to a third set in Madrid.  Madison Keys? She doesn’t back herself much on clay. The same goes for Jessica Pegula. Victoria Mboko? She’s barely played clay matches this spring after getting her wisdom teeth pulled early on and catching a virus in Rome. Gauff’s quarter could quickly be wide open if Gauff has one of those days when she can’t land a serve and her forehand goes wobbly and she loses her temper. But if she doesn’t have one of those days, then it’s hard to make an argument for the other boldface names. Amanda Anisimova has been injured — wrist, just like Carlos Alcaraz. Anastasia Potapova is in a rich vein of form, but could just as quickly run cold. Anna Kalinskaya is seemingly never totally healthy. Linda Nosková has never gone deep in a Grand Slam. Same goes for Ekaterina Alexandova.  The other seeds are Elise Mertens and Ann Li. Compare that to a half that has Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek, but also Madrid Open champion Marta Kostyuk, a seemingly rejuvenated Mirra Andreeva, a Hailey Baptiste emboldened by beating Sabalenka, Italian Open champion Elina Svitolina, 2022 finalist Karolína Muchová and 2017 champion Jelena Ostapenko. Take this all with a grain of salt, because this isn’t the only section that could completely go against the grain. Félix Auger-Aliassime is the top seed in his quarter of the men’s draw. Call it the Auger-Aliassime quarter, then. Or is it the Daniil Medvedev quarter? Whatever fans might decide, in tennis, if it’s not clear which player a draw should be named for, it’s probably pretty likely to go against seedings. Auger-Aliassime should be a great clay-court player, but he has never really proven that on actual clay, at least not since the five-set scare he gave Rafael Nadal here in 2022. He’s only won four matches on the dirt this spring. Medvedev looked tough at the Italian Open, dragging Jannik Sinner into an attritional, grinding match, but he has proven that means nothing. He’s an Italian Open champion; he has also lost in the first round at Roland Garros six times in his past nine appearances. Other seeds in that quarter include Brandon Nakashima, Learner Tien, Francisco Cerúndolo, Valentin Vacherot, Cameron Norrie, and Flavio Cobolli. Nakashima and Tien aren’t big clay fans. Cerúndolo is a huge one, but has a tendency to buckle seemingly out of nowhere. Vacherot’s forehand is a weakness. Norrie’s serve is even more attackable on clay than it is elsewhere. Cobolli’s ceiling is high, but his floor is low. If there’s an unseeded player in the semis in around a fortnight, he is very likely to be coming from this quarter of chaos and opportunity. Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Caty McNally Lois Boisson vs. Anna Kalinskaya (22) Hugo Gaston (WC) vs. Gaël Monfils (WC) Rafael Jódar (27) vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic Happy birthday, Novak Djokovic? If the 24-time Grand Slam champion, who to turns 39 Friday, wasn’t already licking his chops thinking about his opportunities at the French Open now that there’s one fewer generation-defining player in the mix, he might be after Thursday’s draw … Or he might not. His quarter is heavy on players who could, or have, caused him a problem when it comes to winning quickly enough to conserve energy, but those same players are light on the experience of bothering him seriously on a big stage, especially on clay. His biggest concern will likely be the same as it always is these days: his durability. He opens against big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. A high-variance match, which for a rusty Djokovic could be dangerous, but could also be routine. His most likely opponent in the third round is either João Fonseca, the rising Brazilian with the game to beat anyone but not the major match-toughness, or Dino Prižmić, who beat an ailing Djokovic at the Italian Open. Should Djokovic make that, his most likely route to a final would entail beating Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur and Alexander Zverev, all players who could trouble him but could just as easily shrink under the pressure of facing one of the great clay-courters in the men’s game. Ruud has a poor 1-5 record against Djokovic, but logged that single win on red clay, at the Monte Carlo Masters in 2024. De Minaur made Djokovic work on grass at Wimbledon last year, but is less likely to do so on clay. Zverev can test Djokovic’s energy reserves, but the only Grand Slam matchup he’s won against him was at the Australian Open last year, when Djokovic retired after one set with a muscle tear sustained in his previous match. This is Djokovic’s lot now: Individual matches look winnable or less winnable, but the real measure of what he can do comes from how much they stack up on top of each other. Floaters are normally the unseeded players who can cause some havoc, but the vast majority of contenders in that bracket have done so well in recent tournaments that they have entered the pantheon of the seeds instead. So, to keep one of the most reliably fun exercises of a Grand Slam going: Who is going to go on a heater out of the kinds of obscurity that still exist this year? Arthur Fils isn’t a bad choice. Fils, the thrilling Frenchman is one of the most exciting players in the men’s draw and the opposite of an unknown, but he has never gone deep at a Grand Slam. He’s on course for a fourth-round matchup against Alexander Zverev, the No. 2 seed, which could renew what has been an evenly matched and very spiky rivalry to date. Rafael Jódar looked a sure bet to be a floater, but he has won so much lately that he is just a seed with a point to prove. Also in that category is Valentin Vacherot, the No. 16 seed who went deep at the Monte Carlo Masters this spring. Then there are the legacy long-shots: Players with the Grand Slam nous to belie the fallow runs they have been having lately. They might include Casper Ruud and Daniil Medvedev, who have the ability to threaten but maybe not the opportunity to do it for long enough. On the women’s side, is there anyone who can re-create the magic of Loïs Boisson last year? The list of contenders is so strong — and rather expansive — that floaters feel difficult to predict. Zheng Qinwen might not have had as many matches as she would like after returning from injury, but some of the best tennis of her career has happened at Roland Garros, and an Olympic gold on clay is one of the surest bona fides a player currently just outside the top 50 can have. Hailey Baptiste (26) vs. Barbora Krejčíková Elina Svitolina (7) vs. Anna Bondár  Felix Auger-Aliassime (4) vs. Daniel Altmaier  Marin Čilić vs. Moise Kouamé (WC) Jannik Sinner, who is aiming to complete the career Grand Slam of winning all four majors, was given a pleasant draw Thursday. Djokovic, a possible semifinal opponent, was drawn so that Sinner cannot face him until the final, while Ruud, a two-time French Open finalist, could have lain in wait in the fourth round. But he too is in the bottom half of the draw. Still, the reality is that Sinner is currently so far ahead of the field that it’s hard to make a case for anyone upsetting him. Maybe Daniil Medvedev as a projected quarterfinal rather than semifinal opponent would have been an issue, given he has pushed Sinner hard in their two meetings this year. But Sinner has won 10 of their past 11 meetings, and the hot, sunny weather forecast for the first week of the tournament does Medvedev few favors on clay. Realistically Sinner’s biggest opponents will be physical and mental. One is his own body, and whether the wear and tear of winning so many matches and tournaments over the past few weeks catches up with him. The other is how he handles the pressure of being an overwhelming favorite. Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have had to reckon with each other at the past nine Grand Slams, and in all of those nine, one of them has won the title. They are each other’s most-feared opponent — but they also act as a foil for oxygen and intrigue, meaning that the spotlight does not fall too heavily on one or the other. With Alcaraz absent, the glare is all on Sinner. One of the most entertaining moments at last year’s French Open came when Iga Świątek unwittingly revealed how much she didn’t want to face her nemesis, Jelena Ostapenko, at the tournament. The mercurial Latvian, who has beaten her in all six of their meetings, was a possible fourth-round opponent in 2025. Asked if she had a preference on who she faced between Ostapenko and Elena Rybakina, Świątek initially said “no.” She then burst into laughter and said: “Am I a good liar?” She added after more laughs, “Oh, my God. I couldn’t play poker.” Ostapenko’s 6-0 record over Świątek is one of tennis’ stranger head-to-heads, given Świątek has been the higher-ranked player for all but one of those meetings. Good at tennis, terrible at poker 😅 Iga Świątek will face Elena Rybakina in the fourth round👀#RolandGarros #tennis #RG25 pic.twitter.com/wD4SmFbuCi — TNT Sports (@tntsports) May 30, 2025 Rybakina ended up beating Ostapenko, who has not faced Świątek since. But the tennis gods may have been kinder this year, with Ostapenko and Świątek slated to face each other as early as the third round. A chance, at Świątek’s most successful tournament, to finally gain some revenge, or for Ostapenko to suggest that this is a curse that is simply going to run and run. Rarely has a potential third-round match been so keenly anticipated. Novak Djokovic (3) vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Victoria Mboko (9) vs. Nikola Bartůňková Arthur Fils (17) vs. Stan Wawrinka Which matchups are you looking out for? Let us know in the comments. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms