Forget the 2026 NBA Playoffs: Bet the Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever at Golden State Valkyries Thursday instead

Have you ever noticed the Indiana Fever (4-2) plays better without Caitlin Clark? I know she’s the biggest star in the WNBA.

But the Fever went the distance with the Las Vegas Aces in the 2025 WNBA Semifinals without Clark and she didn’t play in Indy’s biggest win this season, 90-73 vs. the Portland Fire, May 20. 

Clark is "probable" to play through her back injury Thursday in the Fever’s road game vs. the Golden State Valkyries (4-2), tipping off at 10 p.m. ET.

There is an obvious "Clark Tax" because Golden State is only a -130 on the moneyline at DraftKings and -1.5 favorites (-110) at the time of writing.

I say "only" since the Valkyries lead the WNBA in net rating through their first six games at +12.4, whereas the Fever are third with a +7.9 net rating.

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Granted, Indy has a three-game winning streak with its previous victory coming against Golden State, 90-82, this past Friday. However, I'm using the zig-zag theory handicapping angle for this game because it's tough beating the same team consecutively in basketball.

The Fever do have a rest edge and has been off since playing the Valkyries, while Golden State’s previous game was Monday. Yet, the Valkyries are fully healthy; they crushed the Connecticut Sun 97-70 in their last game and four of Indy’s starters didn’t play in the fourth quarter.

Furthermore, the Fever are the most-bet team to win the 2026 WNBA Championship at BetMGM by a significant margin, according to John Ewing via X, which kind of explains the aforementioned "Clark Tax."

Indy is getting 26.1% of the bets to win the title, compared to the reigning WNBA champion Aces, who have 12.3% of the ticket count. This highlights the Indy’s popularity among bettors and I doubt that’s all sharp action. 

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Nevertheless, Golden State should throttle Indiana in the "battle for possessions". The Valkyries average 11.4 more field goal attempts than their opponents this season and have better turnover and rebounding margins.

Also, both are a "jump-shooting" teams, which usually favors the home team, and Golden State are a better outside shooting team. The Valkyries are second in the WNBA in 3-point percentage and the Fever are 10th.

Lastly, Indiana has only played one road game this year, but last regular season, its true shooting rate — which accounts for 2-point, 3-point and free-throw shooting — went from 57.1% at home to 53.5% on the road. 

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.