Fewer Hurricanes Are Forecast This Year—Here’s Why Your Insurance Bill Probably Won’t Go Down

BreakingBusinessFewer Hurricanes Are Forecast This Year—Here’s Why Your Insurance Bill Probably Won’t Go DownByMary Whitfill Roeloffs,Forbes Staff. Mary Roeloffs is a Forbes breaking news reporter covering pop culture.Follow AuthorMay 21, 2026, 03:07pm EDTToplineForecasters at the National Hurricane Center say they expect the upcoming storm season to be a quiet one—forecasting fewer than 14 storms will form in the Atlantic from June to November—but homeowners in vulnerable areas like Florida and other Gulf states are unlikely to see lower prices from their insurance companies. An aerial view of people standing near destroyed and damaged buildings in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.Getty ImagesKey FactsExperts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict a total of eight to 14 named storms and, of those, think three to six will turn into hurricanes and one to three will turn into major hurricanes (meaning category 3, 4 or 5). An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major storms with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher, but NOAA scientists say the coming season (from June 1 to Nov. 30) could see fewer storms due to El Niño suppressing hurricane development on the open ocean. And while it may still be good news for the millions homeowners in hurricane-prone states like Florida, Louisiana and Texas, those paying sky-high insurance prices because of their states’ hurricane exposure and wind risk aren’t likely to catch a break on premiums. Hurricane insurance pricing is driven far more by multi-decade catastrophe modeling—which encompasses historical disasters, demographic information, financial data and more—than by NOAA’s single-season forecast, meaning insurance premiums are unlikely to go down despite Thursday’s forecast. NOAA last predicted a below-normal Atlantic forecast in 2015 and insurance companies did not meaningfully reduce coastal premiums as a result, and largely continued to raise prices for reinsurance...