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2026•Güncelleme: 28 Nisan 2026İstanbulPiyasalarda kısa vadede ECB’nin politika faizlerini sabit bırakacağı beklentisi öne çıkarken, Hürmüz Boğazı çevresindeki gelişmeler, petrol ve doğal gaz fiyatlarında yaşanan hareketlilik ile enflasyon görünümüne ilişkin riskleri artırıyor. Analistler, enerji maliyetlerindeki yükselişin kalıcı hale gelmesi durumunda Avro Bölgesi’nde dezenflasyon sürecinin yavaşlayabileceğini, bunun da ECB’nin para politikası patikasında değişikliğe yol açabileceğini ifade ediyor. ING Group Başekonomisti Peter Vanden Houte, AA muhabirine yaptığı değerlendirmede, ECB’nin nisan ayında politika faizlerini sabit bırakmasını beklediğini kaydetti. Son dönemde ECB Yönetim Kurulu üyelerinden bazılarının yeni bir gelişme bulunmadığını ve harekete geçme aciliyetinin olmadığını vurguladığını belirten Houte, piyasaların şu anda yıl sonuna kadar yaklaşık 50 baz puanlık artırım öngördüğünü ifade etti. Houte, nisan ayı PMI anketine göre büyümedeki yavaşlamaya rağmen üretici fiyatları enflasyonunun 37 ayın en yüksek seviyesine ulaştığını aktardı. Bu hususun önemli olduğunu dile getiren Houte, şu ifadeleri kullandı: “Zira ECB Başkanı Christine Lagarde, mart ayındaki basın toplantısında ECB’nin özellikle firmaların satış fiyatı beklentilerine büyük önem vereceğini belirtti. Bu nedenle piyasalar, ECB’nin gelecekteki enflasyon risklerine ilişkin değerlendirmelerine dair herhangi bir ipucuna büyük ilgi gösterecek. Şu anda istikrar sağlanmış olsa da bu yılın ilerleyen dönemlerinde faiz artışı olasılığı açıkça artmıştır.” Rabobank Kıdemli Makrostratejisti Bas van Geffen de enerji piyasalarındaki sakinliğin ECB’nin nisan ayında faiz artırımına gitme aciliyetini ortadan kaldırdığını, bu nedenle bankanın nisan ayında mevduat faizini yüzde 2’de sabit bırakacağını öngördü. Ancak Hürmüz Boğazı’nın kapatılmasının muhtemelen bu yılın ilerleyen dönemlerinde faiz oranlarının bir miktar daha yükseltilmesini gerektirecek bir maliyet şokuna yol açabileceğini belirten Geffen, ECB’nin mart ayı toplantısında sunulan temel senaryo tahminlerinin artık gerçekleşmeyebileceğini ifade etti. Geffen, “Enerji fiyatları, büyüme ve enflasyona ilişkin kendi tahminlerimiz, ECB’nin olumsuz senaryosuyla benzerlik göstermektedir. Bu durum muhtemelen bir ya da iki faiz artışı gerektirecektir. ECB’nin güncellenmiş tahminleri alacağı haziran ayında bir faiz artışı öngörüyoruz.” değerlendirmesinde bulundu. ABN AMRO Hollanda ve Avro Bölgesi Kıdemli Ekonomisti Jan-Paul van de Kerke de ECB Yönetim Kurulunun parasal sıkılaşma eğilimine geçtiğini ve bu durumun büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkiyi dengelediğini belirtti. Van de Kerke, “Bununla birlikte, enflasyondaki artışın önceki dönemlere kıyasla daha sınırlı ve yönetilebilir bir düzeyde kalacağını öngörerek, haziran ve temmuz toplantılarında faiz artışı yapılmasını bekliyoruz, bu durumda mevduat faizi yüzde 2,50’ye yükselecek.” ifadelerini kullandı. Natixis Avrupa Makro Araştırmalar Başkanı Alain Durre ise ECB’nin enerji fiyatlarının seyri, piyasa bazlı enflasyon beklentileri ve finansal koşullardaki sıkılaşmayı yakından izleyeceğini belirtti. Durre, şu değerlendirmede bulundu: “Zayıf büyüme ivmesi göz önüne alındığında ve savaşın haziran ayına kadar sona ereceği varsayımıyla temel senaryomuz, önümüzdeki haziran toplantısında 25 baz puanlık faiz artışı yönündedir. Ardından ECB’nin 2026 yılının geri kalanında faizleri sabit tutmasını bekliyoruz. Lagarde’ın da enflasyon beklentilerini kontrol altına almaya yönelik şahin tonda mesajlar verebileceğini düşünüyoruz.” Commerzbank Kıdemli Ekonomisti Marco Wagner ise özellikle enerji fiyatlarındaki yükselişin ikinci tur etkiler yaratması halinde faiz artışı ihtimalinin masada kalacağını ifade etti. Wagner, “ECB’nin kısa vadede faiz oranlarını değiştirmeyeceği tahmin ediliyor. Ancak özellikle ikinci dalga etkiler uzun vadede enflasyonu yukarı çekmeye devam ederse faiz artışı ihtimali tamamen ortadan kalkmış sayılmaz. Haziran ayında, özellikle Hürmüz Boğazı çevresindeki çıkmazın devam etmesi durumunda faiz artırımının gerçekleşme olasılığını hala yüksek görüyoruz.” dedi. Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.