Election Betting Markets Believe The Texas Senate Race Is A Toss-Up

BreakingBusinessElection Betting Markets Believe The Texas Senate Race Is A Toss-UpBySiladitya Ray,Forbes Staff. Siladitya Ray is a New Delhi-based Forbes news team reporter.Follow AuthorMay 27, 2026, 08:04am EDTMay 27, 2026, 08:04am EDTToplineBettors believe the Texas Senate race remains a toss-up despite Attorney General Ken Paxton’s thumping win in the GOP primary runoff Tuesday night—after Democrats’ odds have narrowed in recent months—with some pollsters suggesting the result slightly boosts the chances of a blue upset in the red state. Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at an election night watch party held by the Lone Star Liberty PAC in Plano, Texas.Getty ImagesKey FactsOn crypto-based betting platform Polymarket ,bookmakers believe the GOP candidate has a 54% chance of winning the Texas Senate race compared to Democrat James Talarico’s 47%.Talarico’s odds on Polymarket jumped slightly ahead of the Republicans after Trump announced he was endorsing Paxton—deemed a more controversial candidate—over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.While Talarico’s lead in the betting markets didn’t last very long, the odds of the race have significantly narrowed from being 75-25 in favor of the Republicans at the start of the year to basically a toss-up now. Bettors on Kalshi believe Paxton has slightly better odds of beating Talarico at 55% to 45%.However, the GOP’s odds of retaining the seat have shrunk significantly since January, when they were 80%. if (!window.cnxel) { window.cnxel = {}; window.cnxel.cmd = []; var iframe = document.createElement('iframe'); iframe.style.display = 'none'; iframe.onload = function() { var iframeDoc = iframe.contentWindow.document; var script = iframeDoc.createElement('script'); script.src = '//cd.elements.video/player.js?cid=62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a'; script.setAttribute('defer', '1'); script.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); iframeDoc.body.appendChild(script); }; document.head.appendChild(iframe); const preloadResourcesEndpoin...