Do Brighton really have a chance of qualifying for Europe this season?

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Another 1-0 loss three days later away to Aston Villa stretched the midseason downturn to one win in 13 league games, but four wins in five since have lifted Hurzeler’s side back into contention for European qualification. So, what is the state of play with seven matches to go, and what are their chances? This recent revival has moved Brighton back up to 10th in the table with 43 points. They are worse off than at the same stage last season, when they were ninth with 47. They ended up finishing eighth in Hurzeler’s first season in charge on 61, missing out on Europe by four points as Nottingham Forest qualified for the Europa League in seventh with 65. That was despite finishing strongly, with four wins and a draw in the last five matches. However, there are differences which improve the prospects of securing a UEFA spot this time. First, they are just three points below Brentford in seventh. They were also three points behind seventh-placed Newcastle United in seventh at the corresponding stage of the 2024-25 campaign, but Eddie Howe and company had two matches in hand. Also, finishing lower than seventh could still be good enough for a Premier League club to make Europe. A record nine teams from the division qualified to play in the three UEFA tournaments this season. That number could increase to as many as 11 of the 20 for 2026-27, as The Athletic has previously explained. Four of their remaining fixtures are away compared with three at home, but that may not be a bad thing. Hurzeler’s side head to surely doomed Burnley on Saturday on the back of successive wins on their travels without conceding a goal (2-0 at Brentford and 1-0 at Sunderland), and the away form has been pretty good overall since the turn of the year. A 1-1 draw at Manchester City in January was followed by two narrow defeats (2-1 to Fulham and 1-0 against Villa). They led until the 72nd minute at Craven Cottage, where the winner came in stoppage time, and lost at Villa Park to an unfortunate 86th-minute own goal by Jack Hinshelwood). Looming large is the visit to relegation-haunted Tottenham Hotspur on April 18, which will be former Brighton head coach Roberto De Zerbi’s home debut in charge of the opposition. The Italian is still adored by many Brighton supporters having guided the club to Europe for the first time via a sixth-place finish in 2022-23. De Zerbi’s appointment at Spurs adds spice and increases the difficulty of that trip to north London for Hurzeler’s team. Hosting Chelsea and Manchester United, the latter on the final day of the season, will not worry Brighton fans as much as a visit from rock-bottom Wolverhampton Wanderers. They are used to watching their team produce good performances and results against the division’s big guns, but they sometimes slip up against strugglers — they needed a late equaliser from Jan Paul van Hecke to rescue a 1-1 draw with Wolves in October’s reverse fixture. According to Opta — using a wide range of performance tools to assess the difficulty of remaining fixtures — Brighton have the third-easiest run-in (harder only than those awaiting Leeds United and Wolves). Brentford, Fulham and Bournemouth — three of the other candidates for European spots — all feature among the seven toughest stretches of upcoming games. Chelsea’s visit has been brought forward from April 26 to the Tuesday, April 21, due to the Londoners’ involvement in the FA Cup semi-finals that weekend. It means another extended break between matches for Brighton until the trip to Newcastle on May 2, soon after having three weeks off for the March internationals and the FA Cup quarter-finals. Further disruption to the schedule is possible. If Chelsea lose to Leeds in that semi-final, Brighton’s trip to Elland Road for the last away game of the season, currently down for May 17, would have to be rearranged as that is the weekend of the FA Cup final. Hurzeler and his captain Lewis Dunk are suspended for the next two games. It is familiar territory for the German, who was banned from the touchline for a match last season as a result of the third of four yellow cards. A third caution of 2025-26 led to another afternoon up in the stands for the 2-1 home win against Brentford in November. The punishment has doubled to two games on this occasion, because Hurzeler picked up his sixth yellow of the campaign in the recent 2-1 defeat of Liverpool — for waving an imaginary card in an attempt to get one of the visitors’ players booked. So Hurzeler will not be on the touchline against Burnley or Spurs. In the latter case, that is probably a blessing in disguise, considering the volatility often on display during matches with both him and De Zerbi. Dunk’s absence from those same games is due to a 10th caution of the season — he was booked in the closing stages against Liverpool for time-wasting. It will be the first time this season that Brighton have been without their influential captain and central defender for two matches in succession, and Dunk has been in good form lately. His absence is ill-timed, during a period when Hurzeler has been afforded the luxury of naming a settled side. It is a worry and only time will tell, but that fear could be dissipated by several key men returning to Brighton on a high following international duty. Ferdi Kadioglu and Yasin Ayari played significant roles in helping Turkey and Sweden respectively reach the World Cup via the European play-offs. Kadioglu scored the only goal in a semi-final victory against Romania, while Ayari’s clever backheel set up Anthony Elanga for the opener in a 3-2 defeat of Poland in their bracket’s final for a Sweden side under former Brighton head coach Graham Potter. Pascal Gross is back in the reckoning for Germany, featuring in friendly wins against Switzerland (4-3) and Ghana (2-1) following his recall to the squad at age 34 having missed the October and November get-togethers. Kaoru Mitoma scored a superb winner in Japan’s 1-0 friendly victory over England at Wembley. “He played a really good game,” said Hurzeler, speaking during an open training session at the Amex at the weekend. “He was always dangerous in transition moments. He created a lot of danger by his individual dribbling.” Hinshelwood took part in that session after a precautionary withdrawal from the England Under-21s squad with a slight knee injury sustained against Liverpool. Since Brighton were promoted to the Premier League in 2017, an average of roughly 59 points has been required to finish seventh. Hurzeler’s side are 16 points off that figure with 21 to play for. Hitting that mark from here is clearly a tall order but with various permutations that could reduce the finishing position and points tally required for some form of European qualification, there is an outside chance it can happen. For what it’s worth, Opta’s Premier League predictor currently gives Brighton an 8.72 per cent chance of making the Europa League (and a 3.46 per cent chance of reaching the Champions League for the first time). At least hope remains alive, which seemed implausible seven games ago following that defeat against Palace. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Andy Naylor worked for 32.5 years on the sports desk of The Argus, Brighton’s daily newspaper. For the last 25 of those years he was chief sports reporter, primarily responsible for coverage of Brighton and Hove Albion FC. Follow Andy on Twitter @AndyNaylorBHAFC