Danish PM’s party suffers worst election result in over a century – exit polls

Migration and welfare concerns have outweighed support for Mette Frederiksen’s defiant stance toward the US over Greenland, analysts say

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats party has suffered its worst election result in over a century, securing about 21.9% of the vote in Tuesday’s general election – its lowest share since 1903 – according to exit polls.

While the party will remain the largest in the Folketing, the Danish parliament, it is projected to drop to 38 seats from 50. The entire left-leaning bloc appears short of a majority, with the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Moderates seen winning 84 seats in the 179-seat parliament, below the 90 needed.

Right-leaning parties are expected to secure at least 77 seats, setting the stage for coalition talks that could take weeks and leaving Frederiksen’s bid for a third term uncertain, analysts said. The Moderates, led by Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, are expected to play kingmaker with 14 seats.

In power since 2019, 48-year-old Frederiksen is known for her backing of Ukraine in its conflict with Russia and a restrictive migration stance.

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She called the election way ahead of the October deadline, with experts suggesting she aimed to capitalize on public support for her opposition to US President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark in the Arctic which Trump has claimed is crucial to US security. Talks over Greenland’s role in NATO continue, though tensions eased after Trump’s meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte in January, where a “framework of a future deal” was announced.

Analysts say domestic issues – notably rising living costs and strain on welfare – overshadowed Frederiksen’s geopolitical stance. Voters cited rising prices for food, housing, and energy driving a protest vote. Her proposed 0.5% wealth tax on assets above 25 million kroner ($3.8 million) drew criticism as harmful to the economy. Some voters also saw her as too lenient on immigration, despite one of the EU’s toughest systems, including temporary refugee status and strict integration rules. Frederiksen insisted she is ready to remain prime minister despite warning coalition talks will be “difficult.”

“The world is unsettled. There are strong winds around us,” she said. “Denmark needs a stable, competent government. We are ready to take the lead.”

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She also downplayed her party’s losses: “We’ve had to deal with war, we’ve been threatened by the American president, and in those almost seven years we’ve gone down four percentage points… I think that’s OK.”