Champions League comebacks: How the quarter-final ties could be turned around

Share full articleFour teams have good reason to feel they have one foot in the Champions League semi-finals after last week’s quarter-final, first-leg encounters. Indeed, Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain all have leads, some more commanding than others, and are only 90 minutes away from securing their place in the competition’s final four. At this level, though, nothing can be taken for granted. Barcelona, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Sporting CP are all plotting a comeback and will leave nothing in the tank in their efforts to keep their Champions League dreams alive. The Athletic analyses the likelihood of a comeback in each of the four Champions League quarter-final ties. Metropolitano, Tuesday April 14th, 8pm UK time Atletico Madrid’s surprise win over Barcelona at Camp Nou was arguably the biggest shock of last week’s first-leg results, with Diego Simeone claiming his first victory as a manager at the home of his Catalan rivals. Despite winning 2-0, though, Atleti are far from through to the semi-finals, illustrated by the price of 12/5 for Barcelona to qualify. Hansi Flick’s team are even shorter (4/6) to win in 90 minutes on Tuesday. While Barca played an entire half of last week’s first leg down a man, they still claimed 58 per cent of possession in a match that also saw the losing side register more shots and big chances. Barcelona finished with a higher expected goals (xG) too. The dynamic of Tuesday’s match will be very similar to that of the Copa del Rey semi-final second leg earlier this season in which Barca nearly overturned a 4-0 deficit, ultimately losing 4-3 on aggregate. Barcelona is a club that relishes the prospect of La Remontada. In the likes of Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Dani Olmo, they certainly have the creative talent to break down the low defensive block Atleti will inevitably employ. A backs-to-the-wall job, however, might be exactly what Simeone and his players want to reach the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since 2016/17. Anfield, Tuesday April 14th, 8pm UK time Nobody can argue PSG didn’t deserve to win last week’s quarter-final first leg at the Parc des Princes. Indeed, the defending European champions were dominant as Liverpool failed to find any sort of traction in a 2-0 loss. Anfield on a European night, however, will be a different sort of challenge for Luis Enrique’s team who have only recently found top gear after a sluggish first two-thirds of the season. While Liverpool have struggled for consistent form on all fronts of late, they have lost just one of their five home matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 10 in their last two European outings on Merseyside. Arne Slot’s team are 5/1 to overcome the 2-0 first leg deficit and make the semi-finals. Liverpool did something similar to make it past Galatasaray in the quarters, but pulling off a comeback against PSG would be something else. If Liverpool are to stand any chance of beating PSG, they must disrupt the rhythm of a midfield unit that helped the French giants claim 74 per cent of possession in the first leg. Slot might also be tempted to start Rio Ngumoha after his goal-scoring display against Fulham. Liverpool desperately need an attacking spark and the young winger could provide that on the left side. Emirates Stadium, Wednesday April 15th, 8pm UK time Of all the teams to have an advantage after last week’s first legs, Arsenal are entitled to feel most confident of their ability to get the job done by reaching the Champions League final four. Having said that, the Gunners are hurting from an extremely damaging home defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday that blew open the Premier League title race. Sporting CP should aim to replicate Bournemouth’s game plan by making the most of quick transition moments to unsettle an Arsenal side that is currently on a losing run of three straight games in all competitions. The Portuguese champions came back from 3-0 down to beat Bodo/Glimt in the last round, producing an impressive display of attacking football in the second leg that overwhelmed the Norwegian underdogs. Luis Suarez, Geny Catamo, Pote and Francisco Trincao have scored a combined 10 goals in the Champions League this season and could pose a threat in North London on Wednesday. At 10/1, though, a Sporting CP comeback is considered unlikely even if Arsenal are shakier now than at any other stage of the season. Allianz Arena, Wednesday April 15th, 8pm UK time For 74 minutes of last week’s match at the Santiago Bernabeu, Bayern Munich produced the sort of performance that surely made them Champions League frontrunners in the eyes of anyone watching. Vincent Kompany’s side were commanding as they took a 2-0 lead through Luis Diaz and Harry Kane. They had one foot in the semi-finals. And then Kylian Mbappe halved the deficit to give Real Madrid hope of a comeback. The Spanish giants are still only 13/2 to qualify for the final four, reflecting the strength of Bayern Munich, but Real Madrid can never be discounted in the Champions League. Nobody has scored more goals (14) in this season’s Champions League than Mbappe with Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham, Arda Guler and Fede Valverde also capable of producing a match-changing moment. Bayern Munich have all won all five of their home matches in this season’s Champions League, scoring more goals per match, averaging more shots per match and creating more big chances per match than any other side. The odds are clearly against Real Madrid, but these sort of circumstances tend to bring the best out of them. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms