Can Andy Burnham win in Makerfield?

If Labour’s National Executive does as its members – and, indeed, much of the voting public – demand, then the battle for Makerfield could emerge as one of the most totemic and decisive parliamentary by-elections in modern British history.

The decision by former Labour Together chair Josh Simons to vacate the seat and throw his weight behind Andy Burnham was not high on my bingo card for this year. Yet the logic behind the move is clear. And in Burnham’s own statement, no one could be in any doubt about the nature of this pitch: it is a pitch for Prime Minister.

But it is a difficult proposition. In the recent local elections, the Makerfield constituency voted 50 per cent Reform and 23 per cent Labour. Reform’s vote share was more than double Labour’s. The Greens polled 11 per cent.

The Britain Predicts model for a general election offers Labour a somewhat stronger showing, but still an uncomfortable one: Reform on 41 per cent to Labour’s 28 per cent. It is a worse forecast for the incumbent party – and a greater disadvantage for Labour – than the initial projection for the Gorton and Denton by-election, where Reform’s lead sat only in the single digits.

Yet, to state the obvious, this would be no ordinary by-election. A Burnham candidacy would transform the contest from a Labour defence into a Burnham offensive. It would cease to be a referendum on the Labour government and instead become a vote on a potential future government – or at least that is what Team Burnham would want it to be.

There is, however, some precedent to draw upon. Gorton and Denton voted 41 per cent Green, 29 per cent Reform, and 25 per cent Labour – a result described by Britain Elects as “off the charts”, quite literally. Yet a post-match “exit poll” suggested that, had Burnham been the candidate, the result would instead have been 47 per cent Labour, 25 per cent Green, and 21 per cent Reform.

Makerfield is a very different constituency. There are fewer prospective Green voters than in Gorton. The seat is overwhelmingly white. It may sit only a railway line away from Gorton, but politically and culturally it is another world entirely.

An adjusted Britain Predicts forecast for Makerfield, accounting for that polling, produces the following estimate: Reform on 36 per cent, Labour on 39 per cent.

In all likelihood, Andy Burnham would probably secure a Labour hold – though only narrowly, by perhaps three points. Depending on turnout, that would amount to somewhere between a few hundred and a thousand votes.

But is that assumption really watertight? Could a Burnham candidacy genuinely rescue Labour in Makerfield?

If Reform succeeds in framing Burnham as a politician exploiting the constituency for personal advancement, would voters listen? And would they sympathise with the charge?

Burnham is currently one of the most popular figures in British politics. But that is a relatively low bar, and his appeal is not overwhelming. Nationally, only around 30 to 40 per cent of voters hold a favourable opinion of the Manchester mayor. Even so, he remains the only major political figure with a net positive approval rating.

And that 30 to 40 per cent is not insignificant. In the North West, as Ipsos polling shows, Burnham’s numbers are substantially stronger – roughly twenty points higher, in fact.

[Further reading: Andy Burnham has a seat (almost)]