Bruins vs. Sabres: 4 reasons the NHL playoff matchup could favor Boston

AtlanticBruinsCanadiensLightningMaple LeafsPanthersRed WingsSabresSenatorsMetropolitanBlue JacketsCapitalsDevilsFlyersHurricanesIslandersPenguinsRangersCentralAvalancheBlackhawksBluesJetsMammothPredatorsStarsWildPacificCanucksDucksFlamesGolden KnightsKingsKrakenOilersSharksScores & ScheduleStandingsPodcastsFantasyNHL OddsNHL PicksPlayoff projectionsNHL Draft rankingRed Light NewsletterNHL Regular Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie and Charlie McAvoy celebrate a goal against the Sabres. Maddie Meyer / Getty Images Share full articleBOSTON — The Boston Bruins will play the Buffalo Sabres in Round 1 after securing the No. 1 wild card with a 4-0 win over the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday. It is the more favorable matchup for the Bruins than the Carolina Hurricanes, who were their other possible opponent. The Bruins went 3-1-0 against the Sabres during the regular season. They were 1-1-1 against the Hurricanes. Here are four reasons the Bruins could still be playing into the second round: Jeremy Swayman entered the regular-season finale with 26.4 goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck, second-highest after Logan Thompson (29.2). Swayman has 20 postseason appearances, including 12 in 2023-24. Swayman was the Bruins’ best player in Round 1 against the Toronto Maple Leafs that year. The ace dipped at the end. Swayman let in a stoppable shot against the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 4. He was pulled in his next start against the Carolina Hurricanes after allowing five goals. He lost at home against the Lightning. “It’s important to have a good game, feeling good again going into it,” coach Marco Sturm said before Tuesday’s game. “That would definitely help.” In comparison, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Buffalo’s likely Game 1 starter, was at 10.5 GSAx as of Tuesday. He has never played a playoff game. Not only that, Luukkonen had been sharing the net with Alex Lyon during the regular season. Lyon has been out with a lower-body injury. If something happens to Luukkonen, the Sabres will have to turn to rookie Colten Ellis. The Bruins will start the playoffs with their most offensively tilted No. 1 line: Morgan Geekie, Elias Lindholm and David Pastrnak. The Sabres will most likely counter with Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson. Buffalo’s top pair is a handful at both ends. They could very well blunt the first line’s firepower. If Sturm sees Dahlin and Samuelsson having too much of a defensive impact, he could break up his first line. The likeliest Plan B would put Marat Khusnutdinov and Fraser Minten on the top line with Pastrnak, jacking up the unit’s speed and puck-pursuit ability. If the Sabres keep the Dahlin-Pastrnak matchup, this could free up Geekie and Lindholm for third-line chances, perhaps with James Hagens as their left wing.  Sturm has been happy with the defensive performances of Casey Mittelstadt, Pavel Zacha and Viktor Arvidsson. It’s possible he could use the second line against Buffalo’s No. 1 line of Peyton Krebs, Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. Thompson will get his looks because of his size and skill. But Zacha is a credible defensive center. With Zacha leading the defensive charge, the Bruins could turn matchup situations into rushes the other way. They have been opportunistic in forcing turnovers and initiating odd-man breakouts. Arvidsson’s speed, in particular, could cause problems for the backtracking Sabres. Sean Kuraly exploded for a three-point performance against the Columbus Blue Jackets, his former team, in Game 81. Mark Kastelic scored twice against New Jersey to finish with a career-best 12 goals. Kastelic and Tanner Jeannot will be eager to smash everybody in an enemy jersey. “I was sitting at nine for a while,” Kastelic said. “To get double digits is a good step for me. I still think I have a lot of room for improvement throughout my career. Just trying to trend upward each and every season. To get 10, it feels good. But it feels better that we’re in the playoffs.” Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Fluto Shinzawa is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Boston Bruins. He has covered the team since 2006, formerly as a staff writer for The Boston Globe. Follow Fluto on Twitter @flutoshinzawa