Big Opening Is Projected For ‘Michael,’ But It May Not Be Enough

BusinessHollywood & EntertainmentBig Opening Is Projected For ‘Michael,’ But It May Not Be EnoughByTim Lammers,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I cover Hollywood and entertainment.Follow AuthorApr 22, 2026, 05:00am EDTJaafar Jackson in "Michael."Lionsgate/Glen WilsonMichael, the biopic about the late King of Pop Michael Jackson, is looking to seize the domestic box office crown in its opening weekend from reigning champ The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, but more stars need to align for the film to be a financial success.Directed by Antoine Fuqua, Michael stars Michael Jackson’s nephew/Jermaine Jackson’s son, Jaafar Jackson, in the title role. The story chronicles the rise of the music icon from his days as a young singer (Juliano Krue Valdi) with his brothers in the Jackson 5 to his rise to the top of the pop charts with his blockbuster albums Off the Wall and Thriller.Forbes‘Michael’ Rotten Tomatoes Reviews Splatter Michael Jackson BiopicBy Tim LammersMichael also stars Colman Domingo and Nia Long as the singer’s parents, Joe and Katherine Jackson.Michael is tracking to open with $65 million to $70 million in 3,900 North American theaters in its opening weekend frame, according to Deadline. Of that theater count, 1,900 venues have IMAX or premium large format screens, the trade publication reported, which will no doubt help the film’s box office bottom line.As healthy as the projected domestic opening number is, it is far below prognosticator Box Office Pro’s long-range forecast from March 27, which pegged an opening in the neighborhood of $85 million to $90 million.MORE FOR YOUForbesRotten Tomatoes Critics Rank Top 10 Pop Music BiopicsBy Tim LammersThe production budget for Michael, according to Deadline, is $200 million before prints and advertising costs. The upside for Michael’s studio, Lionsgate, is that the biopic is also projected by Deadline to earn $75 million to $80 million from 82 international t...