As Trump-Xi Meet, Stunning Declines From Trade War Appear Personal

BusinessPolicyAs Trump-Xi Meet, Stunning Declines From Trade War Appear PersonalByKen Roberts,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Two decades analyzing U.S. trade data by port, country, export, importFollow AuthorMay 13, 2026, 07:14pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.President Trump talks to Chinese President Xi Jinping in October in South Korea. The trade war Trump started in 2018 has changed the trade relationship between the leaders and the world's two largest economies in significant ways.AFP via Getty ImagesAs President Trump and President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing today, if you are looking for hints that the trade-war friction between the world’s two largest economies might be personal, look no further than U.S. exports of soybeans. Or oil. Or passenger vehicles.Sure, U.S. soybean exports have increased by $983.90 million from the first quarter of 2018 to this year, according to my analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data. But it’s not that simple. Soybean exports, while up from the first quarter of 2018, the tail end of the growing season, are down 44.27% from three years ago, when President Joe Biden was in the White House. In fact, the four top years for first-quarter soybean exports were when Biden was president – even though he did not reduce Trump’s tariffs.Among the U.S. exports caught in the trade war Trump started with China in 2018, the decline in U.S. exports of soybeans to China has received a great deal of attention, primarily because the majority of them were once shipped there from states Trump won in his first election. Last year, for five consecutive months, total U.S. soybean exports to China were zero, an unprecedented blow to farmers, largely in the Midwest. That market is now largely lost to Brazil. But it’s not just soybeans – oil is getting the “soybean treatment” this year, with a 100% declin...