Artificial Intelligence Investment Will Hit 2% Of U.S. GDP In 2026, Analyst Says—Nearing Defense Spending Levels

BreakingBusinessArtificial Intelligence Investment Will Hit 2% Of U.S. GDP In 2026, Analyst Says—Nearing Defense Spending LevelsByMary Whitfill Roeloffs,Forbes Staff. Mary Roeloffs is a Forbes breaking news reporter covering pop culture.Follow AuthorJun 05, 2026, 01:31pm EDTToplineNew analysis from TS Lombard shows the United States is on track to devote approximately 2% of gross domestic product to artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure in 2026, an investment well above that of any other major country that places it among the largest concentrated spending booms in modern U.S. history. People walk through the hallways at Equinix Data Center in Ashburn, Virginia, on May 9, 2024. The Washington Post via Getty ImagesKey FactsTS Lombard, an economic research and investment strategy firm, predicts the U.S. will be responsible for more than 80% of an $800 billion global spend in the sector this year and that AI buildout is on track to surpass the Gilded Age’s so-called “Railway Mania” to become the biggest infrastructure project in US history. Other estimates from Bridgewater Associates, Goldman Sachs and Lombard Odier also place projected AI infrastructure spending between $650 billion and $800 billion this year—equivalent to roughly 2% to 2.5% of the U.S. economy.The nation’s AI buildout is comparable in economic scale to the county’s entire higher-education sector—which accounts for about 2.3% of the GDP—and approaches the size of the national defense budget, which was 2.9% of GDP in 2025 at $954 billion. And while defense spending as a share of GDP is expected to decline over the coming years — to 2.4% in 2036 according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation—spending on artificial intelligence is only expected to rise. Wall Street analysts estimate total AI capital expenditures could climb above $1 trillion in 2027 and to around $3 trillion by 2035.By comparison, the peak of the dot-com telecom buildout around 2000 accounted for roughly 1% to 2% of GDP, A...