Are the Las Vegas Raiders on the upswing? Why this offseason offers optimism

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Ethan Miller / Getty Images Share full articleTom Brady and general manager John Spytek’s disastrous debut season together was just another chapter in an era of dysfunction for the Las Vegas Raiders. Last offseason, Brady was the officiant in the arranged marriage between former head coach Pete Carroll and Spytek. Spytek didn’t choose Carroll, and the misalignment between the front office and coaching staff produced a season that ended with them picking first in this year’s draft. Spytek made plenty of mistakes in his first year. He admitted regretting letting too much talent walk out the door in free agency last offseason. Also, it’s fair to question the prudence of picking a running back at No. 6 for a team that had one of the worst offensive lines in the league. This offseason, Spytek and Brady essentially had a blank slate to build the Raiders in their image and prove last season won’t be the norm. So far, the Raiders seem to have a coherent strategy and have stacked sensible moves together. First, they landed the top offensive play caller in the cycle as their new head coach, hiring Klint Kubiak, who will implement the hottest offensive system in the league (Shanahan outside zone system). To get Kubiak, they had to navigate uncertainty and wait for him to finish his Super Bowl run as Seahawks offensive coordinator. While they waited, other candidates filled vacancies, and it essentially became a Kubiak-or-bust situation, but in the end, they got their man. First on Spytek’s agenda this offseason was dealing with a potential Maxx Crosby trade. Though neither side has said Crosby requested a trade, the writing was on the wall. Crosby was furious with the Raiders for shutting him down for the final two games to preserve his knee, for which he did eventually get surgery, and Crosby never fully committed to the Raiders in interviews. Both sides were deft in their approach to get the Raiders the most compensation for the star pass rusher possible. If Crosby publicly demanded a trade, they would have lost leverage in negotiations, so the possibility of keeping him helped them get the best deal possible. The Ravens eventually met the Raiders’ demand of two first-round picks. Getting that sort of compensation was a feather in Spytek’s cap, despite the end result. The Ravens backed out of the trade because of a failed physical, and no matter what you believe about the Ravens’ motivation, the Raiders handled the fallout as well as they could have. According to a league source, Spytek, Kubiak, Raiders owner Mark Davis and defensive coordinator Rob Leonard all reached out to Crosby as soon as the trade fell through to reiterate his importance to the franchise and express their excitement in getting him back. It may seem like a small gesture, but good organizations don’t drop the ball in these situations. The united front showed Crosby an organizational alignment that has been absent in his time with the Raiders, and he recommitted to the franchise that drafted him. They got back one of the NFL’s best edge rushers and a model for the work ethic they want to instill in Kubiak’s culture. Crosby returns to a much-improved defensive roster, thanks to Spytek’s work in free agency. The Raiders smartly re-signed corner Eric Stokes, who had his best season last year and was one of the team’s lone bright spots. Stokes allowed a passer rating of 77.2 when targeted and just 9.3 yards per reception (fourth among corners with at least 400 coverage snaps). Stokes came back on a reasonable contract (three years, $30 million). His average annual salary is tied for 34th among cornerbacks. Spytek also addressed a major weakness by signing two starting linebackers in Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean. A year after losing Robert Spillane in free agency, Spytek signed Walker and Dean to slightly bigger contracts in terms of average per year. Still, the linebacker market is affordable relative to other positions, similar to running backs. The Raiders had money and didn’t overspend. Walker’s play can be sporadic. He’s an elite athlete at his position, but can get lost in coverage. I like pairing him with Dean, his teammate at Georgia. Dean will likely wear the green dot for the Raiders, which will take a mental load off of Walker and allow him to play more freely. Dean is one of the smartest linebackers in the league and should help ensure Walker is where he’s supposed to be. Two moves I thought were questionable were signing defensive lineman Kwity Paye to a three-year, $48 million ($32 million guaranteed) deal. Paye hasn’t been productive as a pass rusher, but he’s an effective run defender and fits Leonard’s scheme, which requires defending the run with light boxes. Another requirement for this style of defense is a nickel who can defend the run like a linebacker. Seahawks rookie Nick Emmanwori was a key part of the Seahawks’ championship defense playing this role last year. Taron Johnson, whom the Raiders traded for, did the same for the Bills for years, but he’s looked well past his prime the last couple of seasons. Though Johnson is a good scheme fit, he should be seen as more of a placeholder at nickel until the Raiders can find a younger replacement. Multi-tool nickels are hard to find. Spytek’s plan was to get younger on defense. Every key acquisition other than Johnson is 27 or younger and is only on their second contract. Though presumed Raiders top pick Fernando Mendoza may not be as physically talented as previous No. 1 picks, his intangibles and obsession with the mental side of the game make him the perfect quarterback prospect for Brady, who likely sees a lot of himself in Mendoza. Though the Raiders haven’t declared that they are going to draft Mendoza, all signs point to the obvious. The clear QB1: intuition, throwing accuracy and confidence are superpowers. A young quarterback’s ecosystem is vital to his development. So far, Spytek has done a phenomenal job of laying the foundation for a strong support system for Mendoza, starting with getting the best play caller available, which is the most important person to pair with a young quarterback. Kubiak’s system is modern and built on the run, play action, and creating mismatches in the passing game. The second most important thing a team can give a quarterback is protection. The Raiders had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season, so they made a massive investment at center, which is critical in Kubiak’s system. Tyler Linderbaum’s three-year, $81 million fully guaranteed free-agent deal drastically reset the center market. “He touches the ball on every play, makes the line calls, he calls protections, he calls directions, he makes dummy calls, he’s the leader of the whole operation, touches the ball before the quarterback gets it,” Kubiak said at last month’s league meeting. “He’s going to be leading meetings when the coaches aren’t there. So, what stands out about him is just obviously the film that he’s put on is exceptional.” Finding a center who can make all of the calls on the line of scrimmage and is advanced enough to make dummy calls (fake calls to throw off the defense) will help a young quarterback. Linderbaum reset the center market by a large margin ($9 million more APY than the second-highest-paid center), but the Raiders see it as resetting the interior offensive lineman market (just $4 million more than the second-highest-paid guard). For Kubiak, the center is just as valuable or more valuable than a guard. The Raiders still need a game-changing receiver, but getting Jalen Nailor was another value signing with potential to be more. Nailor can get open deep and has exceptional hands. He was the Vikings’ third receiver behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but there’s a belief around the league that he can develop into a good starting receiver. Spytek signed him to a reasonable three-year, $35 million deal ($23 million guaranteed). The Raiders will likely add a receiver in the draft and give Mendoza another weapon to complement Brock Bowers, who has established himself as one of the league’s best tight ends. There is still more work to be done on offense, which is one reason the Raiders signed quarterback Kirk Cousins. Aside from being a mentor with experience in Kubiak’s offense, the Raiders don’t have to rush Mendoza if they feel like the offense isn’t good enough to support him. There’s still work to be done with the offensive line. The Raiders’ offseason comments suggest they think they can get much more out of several members of last year’s group, like right tackle DJ Glaze, with better coaching. The Cousins signing wasn’t about trying to win in the short term. He does give them a high baseline of play, but his main role is to help develop Mendoza both directly and indirectly. Cousins said in an interview with “Good Morning Football” that he had already started watching film with Mendoza during Mendoza’s visit with the Raiders. “He’s going to have great support all around him from the coaching staff, but to the degree that being able to watch a veteran quarterback go through his habits and routines and process, I think that can be a great asset for him,” Cousins said. “It’ll be a noisy quarterback room. We’ll all be helping each other, and we’ll all be pulling in the same direction.” Spytek and Cousin’s agent, Mike McCartney, agreed on a creative contract that benefited both sides. On paper, Cousins signed a five-year, $172 million contract, but it’s essentially a one-year, $20 million deal in which the Raiders pay only $11.3 million. The Falcons still owe Cousins $10 million, so the Raiders will only pay Cousins $1.3 million this season, which puts the Falcons on the hook for $8.7 million. Next season, the Raiders will pay Cousins a $10 million roster bonus at the start of the new league year, which counts against the 2027 cap. Then they have an option to keep Cousins for two years, $80 million, which likely won’t happen unless Cousins exceeds expectations. Spytek has massively improved the Raiders with mostly smart contracts. Last year’s draft class was made up of players with big developmental curves and big upside, like tackle Charles Grant and corner Darien Porter. It remains to be seen whether those picks will take the next step. The Raiders have 10 picks in this year’s draft, and many should be dedicated to the offense. Outside opinions don’t win games, but for the first time in a long time, the Raiders have stacked together sensible moves. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Ted Nguyen is a NFL senior writer for The Athletic. He breaks down film to uncover the story that the X's and O's tell. He also covers the latest trends around the league and covers the draft. Follow Ted on Twitter @FB_FilmAnalysis