Airlines axe millions of seats amid warning jet fuel could fall to 'critically low levels'

Airlines have pulled millions of seats and cancelled thousands of flights as the fallout from the Iran conflict begins to hit global travel.

Fears are growing that jet fuel supplies could fall to "critically low levels" as disruption to key oil routes intensifies.

Airlines around the world have cut about two million seats and cancelled roughly 12,000 flights from their May schedules in the past two weeks as the conflict with Iran puts pressure on jet fuel supplies.

The disruption is linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that carries around a fifth of the world’s oil.

According to aviation analytics company Cirium, total available seats across all carriers this month dropped from 132 million to 130 million between mid and late April.

Gulf carriers including Qatar Airways, Etihad and Emirates have suffered the greatest impact from airspace restrictions and airport disruptions in the Middle East since hostilities began on 28 February.

The situation marks an unprecedented challenge for the industry, with the shortage of physical fuel supplies rather than price volatility driving operational decisions.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs has issued a stark warning that Britain faces the greatest exposure to the fuel crisis of any European nation.

The UK stands as the continent's largest net importer of jet fuel and holds no strategic reserves whatsoever, leaving commercial stockpiles as the sole buffer against supply disruptions.

"As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures," the bank stated in a research note.

The analysis highlighted that European jet fuel supply was experiencing "extreme tightness" following the strait's closure, with Britain particularly vulnerable due to its heavy dependence on imports and limited refining capacity.

The country now operates just four oil refineries following the shuttering of Grangemouth in Scotland in April 2025 and the Lindsey facility in Lincolnshire last August.

European and international carriers have responded with significant capacity reductions across their networks.

Lufthansa has implemented the most substantial cuts, removing 20,000 flights from its schedule between May and October, with Air China following after scrapping domestic services.

Air France-KLM anticipates its fuel costs will surge by $2.4 billion this year, while American Airlines expects an increase exceeding $4 billion.

British Airways owner IAG has confirmed it will pass higher fuel expenses on to passengers through increased ticket prices, acknowledging it was "not immune" to the volatility despite hedging arrangements.

Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary told The Times that competitors were "desperately" hunting for services to axe.

The cost of jet fuel has doubled since the conflict erupted at the end of February, climbing from $99 per barrel to a peak of $209 in early April before settling at $181 last week.

The Government has introduced emergency measures permitting airlines to consolidate passengers from separate bookings onto fewer aircraft in an effort to conserve fuel supplies.

Under the temporary rule change, travellers could find themselves transferred from their original flight to an alternative service, reducing wasted fuel from operating partially filled planes.

Consumer organisation Which? has criticised the policy shift, with travel editor Rory Boland arguing that regulations should not be "bent in favour of airlines" at passengers' expense.

"Before any changes are made, passengers need cast-iron assurances that their rights will not be weakened and that airlines cannot use reform as cover to shift the cost of disruption on to travellers," he said.

Shadow transport secretary Richard Holden attacked the proposals, warning families risked being "herded on to a different plane, at a time of the airline's choosing".

"The honest message is that Britain is exposed to fuel supply risks that a properly energy-secure country would not face," he added.

Sir Keir Starmer cautioned last week that British holidaymakers might need to reconsider their travel destinations should the conflict continue affecting aviation.

The Prime Minister's remarks went beyond official government guidance, which maintains there is currently no need to alter upcoming travel arrangements.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander sought to reassure the public on Sunday that summer plans would not face major disruption, citing increased fuel imports from the United States and higher output from domestic refineries.

The European Commission has urged airlines and member states to prepare for all possible scenarios, with spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen stating: "I don't think anyone knows how long this situation will last."

The International Energy Agency has described the crisis as the world's largest oil output disruption, warning in mid-April that Europe possessed just six weeks of jet fuel reserves before shortages would materialise.