AI to Put Over 1.3 Million Moroccan Jobs at Risk by 2030
Rabat — Morocco’s labor market is entering a phase of profound structural transformation driven by artificial intelligence, according to a new report released Wednesday by the African Center for Strategic Studies and Digitalization. The shift extends far beyond job displacement, signaling a sweeping reconfiguration of work content, required skills, and value chains across the economy, the report warns.
Nearly 1.5 million jobs in Morocco are expected to face direct pressure from automation and AI technologies by 2030, while an additional 3.1 million roles will undergo significant changes in their tasks and responsibilities. In total, 4.6 million jobs could be affected. Meanwhile, the country’s capacity to generate new digital employment remains limited, with only around 180,000 positions projected to emerge—resulting in a net loss estimated at 1.32 million jobs.
The report emphasizes that the central challenge is not merely job destruction but the rapid pace of transformation, which is outstripping the labor market’s current ability to adapt.
This disruption is expected to intensify over the next decade. The number of high-risk jobs could notably reach 2.9 million by 2035, with nearly 8 million positions projected to be affected overall. Even with an anticipated creation of 450,000 new roles, the imbalance would persist, leading to a projected net loss of 2.45 million jobs.
Sectoral exposure and shifting roles
The impact of AI is uneven across sectors. Offshoring and business process outsourcing (BPO) services are among the most vulnerable, with exposure rates approaching 30%. The banking and insurance sectors follow at 22%, alongside the automotive industry (15%) and the textile sector (14%).
Administrative functions, routine analytical tasks, and support roles are particularly susceptible to automation. These jobs are increasingly evolving toward supervisory, coordination, and quality-control functions, requiring higher levels of oversight and decision-making.
Notably, higher education does not guarantee protection. While 12% of workers without diplomas are exposed to automation risks, the rate rises to 17% among graduates and could reach 30% in more advanced scenarios, reflecting AI’s growing capacity to perform cognitive tasks.
Disproportionate social impact
The transformation carries significant social implications. Women, who account for 20.6% of total employment, are overrepresented in highly exposed sectors. The data suggests that between 350,000 and 400,000 female jobs are under pressure.
Young people face an even more acute challenge. With youth unemployment already at 37.2%, the erosion of entry-level positions threatens to further limit access to the labor market. More than 4.3 million young Moroccans are currently not in employment, education, or training (NEET), underscoring the scale of the issue.
Training system under strain
The report highlights a critical mismatch between workforce skills and market needs. Morocco currently produces around 22,000 digital graduates annually, far below demand. By 2030, between 250,000 and 480,000 individuals would need to be trained or retrained each year to keep pace with AI-driven changes.
This gap is compounded by the size of the informal sector, which employs approximately 67.6% of the workforce. Workers in this segment often lack access to training and reskilling opportunities, increasing the risk that large portions of the population will be excluded from emerging, higher-value jobs.
A call for integrated reform
In response, the African Center for Strategic Studies and Digitalization calls for a comprehensive national strategy that integrates education, employment, and industrial transformation.
Key recommendations include the development of a national skills framework focused on short, targeted training programs aligned with real-world AI applications, as well as the promotion of hybrid skill sets that combine technical and soft competencies.
The report also urges policymakers to rethink entry-level jobs by enriching them with higher-value tasks such as quality control, data analysis, and complex problem management, ensuring they remain viable pathways into the labor market.
Upgrading vulnerable sectors is another priority, particularly in BPO, where the transition toward data analytics and higher-value services could help avoid stagnation in low-productivity activities.
It is also essential to strengthen social protection systems, the report notes, explaining that more flexible and portable mechanisms are needed to support workers through career transitions while maintaining access to continuous training.
Finally, the report stresses the importance of building national capabilities in artificial intelligence—not only in usage, but also in design and adaptation—through a structured “AI Made in Morocco” approach aimed at fostering technological sovereignty and long-term competitiveness.
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