A study investigates: Did the abrupt end of USAID have an impact on violence?

Global Health A study investigates: Did the abrupt end of USAID have an impact on violence? May 19, 202610:12 AM ET Ari Daniel Refugees carry food at a distribution center run by the World Food Programme at Kakuma Refugee Camp in Turkana, Kenya. After U.S. aid that paid for the food was curtailed, protests broke out. Andrew Kasuku/AP hide caption toggle caption Andrew Kasuku/AP Does foreign aid have an impact on violence — on wars, on street fights, on random attacks? The answer is that yes, it does — in two opposite, and perhaps counterintuitive, ways. On the one hand, aid can provide jobs and resources. And that, in turn, can reduce the incentives for people to engage in violent actions. Yet it can have the reverse effect as well. "Aid can also increase conflict by introducing something to fight over," says Austin Wright, a data scientist at the University of Chicago who works at the intersection of public policy and statistics. He's referring to resources like roads and supplies paid for by the foreign assistance. In other words, "things that are of value to control." Sponsor Message The termination of USAID — America's premiere aid agency — gave researchers another angle to explore. Does the sudden withdrawal of aid funding have an impact on conflict? In a study published in the journal Science, Wright and his colleagues conclude that the abrupt dismantling of USAID led to an uptick in overall conflict in places within Africa that have received aid compared to those that have not. "The rapid collapse of what is probably the most sophisticated humanitarian assistance program in human history had enormous consequences on the ground, undermining livelihoods and therefore leading to a surge in violence," Wright concludes. The near instantaneous evaporation of assistance "took away the livelihoods, it undermined economic productivity," he explains, thereby weakening the incentives that people might have to refrain from violence. And at the same time, "it did not yet...