2026 Senate races to watch: From most likely to flip to Democratic long shots

Analysis 2026 Senate races to watch: From most likely to flip to Democratic long shots May 2, 20265:00 AM ET Domenico Montanaro The U.S. Capitol Building is visible in the early morning hours of April 2. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images hide caption toggle caption Andrew Harnik/Getty Images Stay up to date with our Politics newsletter, sent weekly. The national political environment is a difficult one for Republicans. President Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, his war in Iran is unpopular, and views of the economy continue to be negative. With the GOP's razor-thin majority in the House, all of that has made Democrats the odds-on favorites to pick up the lower chamber. But what about the Senate? That's still an uphill climb for Democrats, given that the path to a majority runs through some pretty Republican-leaning places, like Ohio and Alaska. Sponsor Message Loading... Because Trump is in the White House, and a vice president breaks ties in the Senate, Democrats need to pick up a net of four seats to take control. Republicans contend they will hold the Senate, but narrowly. They expect Democrats to pick up anywhere from one to three seats. Democrats believe a path to four is possible. So let's take a look at the landscape, in order of most to least likely to flip. Tier 1 is most likely, Tier 2 is competitive but less likely, and so on. Race rating denotations (Toss-Up, Lean, etc.) are based on the Cook Political Report. Analysis is based on conversations with political operatives involved in the campaigns. Loading... Tier 1 — Most likely to flip: North Carolina NORTH CAROLINA (R-Open) LEAN D: It's currently the most likely seat to change hands. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. Looking to replace him are Michael Whatley, a former Trump Republican National Committee chairman, and former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. Both sides see Cooper as a recruiting win for Democrats. He's well known, has won statewide and is off to a good fundraising start. Whatley,...