1% win probabilities, late-game NBA magic and why the Knicks might be Houdini

Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks defied the odds with their incredible 22-point, fourth-quarter comeback in Game 1 of the NBA's Eastern Conference finals. Sarah Stier / Getty Images Share articleThe New York Knicks stunned the Cleveland Cavaliers and the entire sports world Tuesday night, erasing a 22-point deficit with just under 8 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter to ultimately claim Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Cavaliers’ win probability at the start of the Knicks’ comeback was 99.9 percent, per ESPN’s win probability model. Cleveland’s victory seemed assured, until the unfathomable happened. What the Knicks accomplished seemed impossible, miraculous, even. But in the modern NBA, these crazy scripts actually get flipped more than historical odds imply. And the Knicks, in particular, should know this lesson well. Perhaps surprisingly, NBA teams clinging to a 1 percent chance of victory have actually emerged victorious more than 1 percent of the time since 2020. So, if you think you’ve recently seen “a lot” of comebacks after the odds of a victory dwindle to a mere percentage point, you’re right. The numbers lie. (Sort of.) Since 2020, NBA teams that fell to a 1 percent win probability or lower still came back to win 98 times in 7,786 team-game instances, a 1.26 percent win rate. Those results are based on a custom win probability model built using NBA play-by-play data since 2020 from hoopR, a publicly accessible online collection of basketball statistics, including in-game data. That does not mean those teams were more likely to win than their 1 percent probability implied. It means that, in the last six years, we’ve seen more late-game Lazarus acts than over the entirety of the NBA’s play-by-play sample. Over thousands of games, even the longest shots still occasionally survive, and lately it’s happened more. This phenomenon appears unique to the NBA, compared to other major North American leagues. NFL teams in similar situations won seven times in 998 instances since 2020, a 0.70 percent rate, using a model built from NFL play-by-play data (from nflreadR, which is similar to basketball’s hoopsR). There’s a smaller sample available for hockey (via hockeyR), but using a similar win probability model from NHL play-by-play data from 2020-21 to 2023-24, NHL teams won 17 times in 2,510 instances, a 0.68 percent rate. Baseball produced the harshest results. From 2021 to 2025, an MLB team’s win probability dropped to 1 percent or lower in 1,480 games. Only five times did that team come back to win, a rate of 0.34 percent. The broader pattern appears clear: Basketball creates far more late-game volatility than the other major sports due to each sport’s unique approach to scoring and time. Win probability models estimate outcomes based on what happened historically in similar situations — score, time remaining and game state. The later the stage of the game, the wider the disparity in the score, the more polarized the probabilities become. A 1 percent chance does not mean impossible. It means teams in those situations almost always lose, at a rate of 99 out of 100, to be precise. But basketball creates more opportunities for chaos, and for trailing teams to survive. Intentional fouling, 3-pointers, clock stoppages and rapid possessions allow multiple scoring swings in seconds. For example, on Tuesday, the Knicks entirely closed a six-point deficit (99-93) in 30 seconds, converting two 3-pointers with the game clock ticked from 1:25 to 0:45. That spurt dropped the Cavs’ win probability from 90.2 percent to 51.6 percent. Those factors influence more varied late-game outcomes than we see in the three other major leagues we examined above. Aside from the hurry-up or no-huddle offense, football remains largely the same game in the final minutes. Timeouts don’t advance the ball as they do in the NBA. In baseball, you still need to get three outs to end an inning, whether it’s the first or the ninth. Hockey sits somewhere in the middle because pulled-goalie situations can create frantic late-game stretches, but late, high-volume scoring remains relatively scarce. Looking further through the lens of these other sports, the Knicks’ 0.1 win probability translates to a baseball team trailing by 12 runs in the seventh inning or later. Or, if you’re looking for a specific moment, based on Tom Tango’s win expectancy, it would be equivalent to the bottom of the ninth, two outs, bases empty, trailing by four runs. In the NFL, the comp would be trailing by 14 in the fourth quarter, first-and-10 at your own 25-yard line with 2 minutes remaining. Per Moneypuck, the hockey example would be trailing 7-3 in the third period. These comparisons help to illustrate the brilliance of the Knicks’ comeback against Cleveland. New York did not merely dip below a 1 percent chance to win; Cleveland’s win probability climbed above 99.9 percent, and the Knicks’ remained below 1 percent for more than 2 minutes before the game turned. Most 1 percent comebacks require one unlikely sequence. This one, at 0.1 percent, required several: rapid Knicks scoring bursts, missed opportunities by Cleveland, clock stoppages, fouling and overtime. And it produced a truly rare outcome. Since the 1996-97 season, the first season for which we have play-by-play data, the Knicks’ fourth-quarter comeback Tuesday trails only the Los Angeles Clippers’ 24-point rally against the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 of the 2012 first round. Per ESPN Insights, NBA teams trailing by 22 points in the fourth quarter of a playoff game since 1997-98 were 1-594 entering Tuesday. And teams were a meager 3-747 when down by 20 or more in the fourth quarter of a playoff game over the last 30 years. But perhaps the most mind-blowing note of all: Per our research, there have been 35 NBA playoff comebacks of 20-plus points in the play-by-play era. The Knicks are now tied for the most with four, alongside the Celtics and Clippers. However, the Knicks’ are all from the last two postseasons. New York has matched the modern-league record for 20-plus-point comebacks in its last 23 postseason games. Even in a sport where impossible endings happen more often than intuition suggests, this Knicks team lives on the outer edge of historical NBA chaos. David Bearman contributed additional research to this article. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms